TurfKronos Football Match Predictor
Upload lineups + past data → predict win/draw/loss and likely scores
1) Upload Data
CSV only. No external libraries.
Tip: Your historic file can mix seasons/competitions; the model derives league averages automatically.
2) Enter Teams & Lineups
3) Model Weights
Weights combine into expected goals. Bigger = stronger influence on predicted scoreline and result probabilities.
4) Run Prediction
Home Win–
Draw–
Away Win–
Exp Goals (Home)–
Exp Goals (Away)–
Most Likely Score–
Scoreline Matrix
Top probabilities across a grid of scores (0..MaxGoals).
Notes
- The model estimates team Elo from the historical file (home=1, draw=0.5, away=0) with a configurable Home Advantage.
- Lineup strength is the average rating of the 11 names matched in the ratings CSV (unknown names are ignored).
- Recent Form uses the last N matches per team (3 pts win, 1 draw, 0 loss).
- Expected goals are derived from league averages adjusted by Elo, lineup, and form. Then we compute outcome probabilities via a Skellam/Poisson grid.
